By Tom Perry: "Analysis: Barghouti's fate now firmly in Israel's hands"
It may never happen.
Hamas's indirect negotiations with Israel to exchange the soldier Gilad Shalit for 1,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails were seen over the last few years as Barghouti's best hope of release.
But the 52-year-old leading member of the Fatah movement was excluded from the swap announced on Tuesday by Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
"It was their last hope. Now the situation is very difficult," said one friend of the Barghouti family, reflecting sentiment among his supporters.
Barghouti is a popular figure among Palestinians. His supporters have portrayed him as a Nelson Mandela-like figure who could galvanize and reunite a divided national movement.
Many Palestinians see him as a leading contender to succeed Mahmoud Abbas, 76, as president. There are few other obvious successors to Abbas within the Fatah party which he leads.
In 2004, an Israeli court sentenced Barghouti to five life sentences and 40 years in jail. He was accused of orchestrating ambushes and suicide attacks during the Palestinian Intifada that was under way at the time.
All other factors remaining equal, Barghouti's fate is now firmly in Israel's hands. If he is to be set free, it will happen in a way that suits Israeli interests.
The prospects of that seem remote in the short term. But with time, an Israeli government may see advantage in letting him go, perhaps as a way to influence Palestinian politics and weaken Hamas, or to revive peace negotiations.
Viewed as a murderer by many Israelis, Barghouti was one of the prisoners Israel had refused to let go during rounds of indirect talks with Hamas since Shalit was captured by Gaza-based militants in 2006.
During his trial, whenever the Israeli prosecutor called him a terrorist, he would respond "occupation is terrorizing," speaking in fluent Hebrew learned during his previous jail stints.
Despite his notoriety in Israel, some left-wing Israeli activists and politicians have visited him in prison, sharing the view that he could be a future Palestinian leader.
Some speculate it could suit an Israeli government one day to release Barghouti as a counterweight to the Hamas group, which is deeply hostile to Israel and has governed Gaza since it seized power there from the Palestinian Authority in 2007.
"I don't think Netanyahu is the person to tailor a deal on Marwan Barghouti, but if another Israeli prime minister is in power, perhaps from the center or left, one could expect a political deal to reinforce Fatah," said Yitzhak Reiter of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"This is not a prediction, but it is one possible scenario."
'A different kind of deal'
Barghouti was a leading activist in both the first and second Palestinian uprisings against Israel.
Born in the West Bank, he supports the idea of an end to the Middle East conflict through the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem -- territory occupied by Israel in 1967.
After Yasser Arafat's death in 2004, Barghouti declared his candidacy for the Palestinian presidency. He then withdrew from the vote, clearing the way for an easy victory for Abbas.
Barghouti's charisma still resonates from behind bars. His portrait as a Palestinian hero has a prominent place on the towering Israeli security wall at a notorious flash point crossing between Ramallah and Jerusalem.
But hopes of his release on Tuesday were dashed.
Ultimately, it suited neither Israel nor the Fatah movement to have Barghouti liberated as part of a deal brought about by Hamas, said Bassem Zubaidi, a Palestinian political scientist from the West Bank university of Birzeit.
"Neither the Israelis nor Fatah are willing to give that credit to Hamas," he said. "Therefore I think, if he is to be released, it will be in a different kind of deal."
Barghouti's belief in the two-state solution to the Middle East conflict sets him apart from Hamas, which refuses to recognize Israel and maintains a commitment to violence.
Although convicted by an Israeli court of militancy, he could yet be a future negotiating partner for Israel.
"If he is to project himself as a moderate, that will resonate with the Israelis," Zubaidi said.
Israeli intelligence: Prisoner Swap Deal Doesn’t Include Al-Barghouti, Saadat, Nor As-Syyed
IMEMC – The prisoner swap deal, reached by the Hamas movement and Israel, does not include several senior political leaders of the major Palestinian factions, senior sources told the Palestinian Ma’an News Agency early on Wednesday.
The exchange does not include; Fatah senior leader, Marwan Al-Barghouti; the Secretary-General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Ahmed Saadat; several top Hamas leaders, including: Ibrahim Hamed, Hasan Salameh, Abdullah Al-Barghouti, Jamal Abu El-Heija, Abbas Issyd. As well as several other senior Hamas officials, whose names are still anonymous, the Israeli Channel Two reported the Israeli Intelligence Chief saying.
The Israeli Shin Bet chief, Yoram Cohen, said that several Palestinian prisoners who killed, or participated in the killing of, some 1200 Israelis, would be included in the swap deal. “The exchange deal will be done through two phases, first of which will include four-hundred and fifty Palestinian prisoners, whose names have been agreed on, who will be released within a week. The second phase will include nearly six-hundred Palestinian prisoners, whose names have been chosen by Israel, who will be released two months after phase one,” the chief said.
Over two hundred Palestinian prisoners are to be deported from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to several countries; including Turkey, Jordan and Egypt. Moreover, the deal will include six Palestinian prisoners from the 1948 Arab areas. He pointed out that many senior Hamas leaders would be deported as well.
The Israeli Shin Bet chief also stated that Israel has not promised to not impose restrictions on detainees who are to be released in the future.
Israel’s Channel Two reported that the exhange between Israel and the Hamas Movement had been signed after a direct meeting held between Ahmed Al-Ga’abarim, leader of Al-Qassam Brigades- the armed wing of the Hamas Movement- and the Israeli special envoy in Cairo.
In addition to this, two female detainees, Qaher As-Sa’adi and Ahlam At-Tamimi, included in the deal, will be deported to Jordan and Egypt.
The Hamas Movement and Israel have been negotiating in secret for three months, and the deal, brokered by Egypt and Russia, was signed in Cairo after Israel had agreed to most of the terms being offered by Hamas.
Gilad Shalit has been held captive by the Al-Qassam Brigades since June 2006, after being kidnapped during an operation carried out by several Palestinian factions against Karam Abu Salem Terminal encampment, in which three Palestinian fighters were killed.
Though the release of over one-thousand Palestinian prisoners and Gilad Shalit is a cause of celebration for most, and a testament to negotiations when both sides come together, it should not be forgotten that over six-thousand Palestinians still remain inside Israeli prisons. Over forty detainees have been held for more that twenty-five years, and fifteen Palestinian Legislature Council members are currently being held.
